Wheat markets were higher last week, but Minneapolis was approximately unchanged, in response to strong weekly export sales and ideas of better demand prospects. The sales yesterday evening were one of the best since the beginning of 2019. World charges are holding strong, and U.S. charges are called competitive.
The trade can keep a close eye on the spring wheat harvest as soon as the USDA left its production estimate unchanged yesterday morning. Most think the estimate sizing high and will have to go down. Traders also question spring wheat in components of the Canadian prairies that are hot and dry recently. Ideas are that spring wheat production is going to be less than original expectations in Canada. All around chart patterns continues to relatively strong, however the market will demand rallies in overseas markets to sustain higher prices here.
Significantly lower production is required in Europe and Russia, and world prices were moving higher replying. Ideas are that Russian and Ukrainian wheat production is usually down by nearly 20 million tons. However, Russian prices tend to be more stable lately. The potential of losses to wheat in northern Europe happens to be reported, plus some analysts now are convinced that EU production could be the lowest in lot of years. The harvest continues in any areas and yields had been disappointing.
Corn was higher to the week and appears to be holding thanks to strong demand prospects. The export sales report was strong again the previous week, and ethanol needs have held well. Prospects for corn and wheat demand from the export market have improved attributable to bad weather in places like Europe and South America. The South American drought has become documented and the lack of a special offer is being felt in world cash markets now. Europe and Russia have seen some weather extremes and feed grain production continues to be affected to the extent that wheat production. The lone exception looks to be Ukraine, which saw some timely rains june to help feed grains but came inside its final stages to help wheat. Prospects to get a quicker settlement with Mexico on NAFTA helps corn demand ideas. Mexico is our largest corn customer.
Soybeans and soybean meal
Soybeans were sharply higher this morning while soybean meal was more range bound. The U.S. and Chinese governments continue to be looking for ways to get talks began to reduce the tariff wars and get exports flowing forwards and backwards countries again. The two sides opted for hold lower-level talks within the past part of August to calculate parameters and details to get a potential agreement. You will find hopes the agreement is usually ready when a presidential summit is held later this fall on the U.S. China shall be forced to pay more for Brazilian supplies in the meantime, and the rest of the world will enjoy cheaper soybeans with the U.S. The charge disparity has become great for Brazilian farmers, but financial loser for that American producer in the tune of immeasureable dollars.
Rice was lower Friday reduce for the week. Futures tested directly into the upper portion of the trading range associated with the second 50 % 2019 and the first third of 2019 before bouncing. The funds are already selling and kept the selling pressure on. Commercials, on the whole, have been buying amid reports of stable cash market prices inside the interior. Reports that the harvest is expanding in aspects of Texas and southern Louisiana are actually a reason to provide.
Yield reports have already been very strong a long way in Texas effective in Louisiana. Milling yields are acceptable or mostly nice. The harvest is far more active today in Texas and southern Louisiana and tend to soon spread north. Producers in Arkansas are reporting that rice fields have got a lot of grass, all this could rob some yield potential. Initial reports from Texas and Louisiana indicate good field yields.
Palm oil and vegetable oils
World vegetable oils prices were weak. Palm oil was little changed over the week. Demand was weaker the other day as private sources in Malaysia reported reduced export volumes. However, the trade thinks charges are low enough to inspire new demand from China and India. There is still a good amount of supply, and then the charts result in upside potential is actually comparatively limited at this stage. Indonesia expects increased production inside coming months. Malaysian stocks are usually increasing at this moment on better production.
Soybean oil was locked in a sideways trend all week and closed lower. Trends are sideways you can get, but prices could help you lower if soybeans stay weaker. Canola was higher because the weather through the prairies became very important. Some areas remain hot and dry and tend to be getting stressed. Almost all of the true in Saskatchewan. Offers from farmers were down the previous week as they loose time waiting for higher prices design they work together with the fields.
Cotton was sharply lower a couple weeks ago and trends are denied on the weekly charts. The USDA caught the market industry by surprise and showed increased supplies to the coming year, and selling was seen all a couple weeks ago in response. The carry-in stocks were higher and production was estimated higher at 19.24 million bales.
Domestic demand was unchanged, and export demand was increased but is not enough to help with making up in the bigger supplies. U.S. ending stocks were increased from 4.0 million bales to 4.6 000 0000 bales. The world data indicated that major exporters might have less cotton, nevertheless the change had not been real big.
Speculators were the prevailing sellers following the reports were released and sold all a couple weeks ago as they have held major long positions. U.S. weather remains good within the Delta and Southeast and has now improved slightly in West Texas on north into Kansas with a bit of precipitation. World conditions bear watching and there is questions developing with regard to the Indian monsoon. The rains happen to be below normal but generally sufficiently good to support crops.
Frozen concentrated orange juice and citrus
FCOJ was lower this morning as the weather for crops in Florida remains great. The daily charts have become showing that price fading from resistance areas, and also the weekly charts indicate that prices are fading through the 170.00 area having held futures in hand since spring of 2019. Chart trends are down being the hurricane season has long been very quiet all ready.
Traders are being focused on the development of the revolutionary crop additionally, the weak interest on the old crop. Overall growing conditions in Florida are perfect to top notch, and there is no storm boost in the Atlantic at this moment. Steger estimated oranges production in Florida at 77 million boxes, citing weather also as an aggressive tree replanting program instituted by producers don\’t know what to the Greening Disease. Nys is getting frequent periods of showers.
Florida producers are seeing good-sized fruit, and work together with groves maintenance is active. Irrigation has been used anytime, and producers expect an excellent crop. A great crop now will almost certainly mean increasing inventories of frozen concentrate. Weaker demand from customers have caused FCOJ inventories in Florida to raise on a year to year basis.
Futures were lower again yesterday and are now trading at levels not seen since November of 2019. London charts show down trends about the weekly charts on top of that, but futures there have held a lot better than New York. Price action in California is bad and trends have turned straight back to down.
Ideas of strong production in Brazil and Vietnam are keeping futures under selling pressure. Producers both in countries may not be selling, although many talk of some big sales in Brazil. Nevertheless the market is generally quiet there a result of the after effects within the truckers strike. The strike concluded in sharp increases in freight costs and disconnect farm selling interest.
Arabica trees in Brazil were starting out to show stress as a consequence of lack of rain over the last few months. It\’s going to dry again via the week. The months before the winter were also dry, knowning that early dryness affects trees now. It is somewhat possible that some production is usually lost for an additional crop as a consequence of very dry overall conditions. Estimates for production this holiday season range as much as 60 million bags.
Central American can also be dry in a few areas and some production losses are increasingly expected. The vast majority of Central America is reporting good rains, and so the overall losses is usually minimal. London remains relatively strong as Vietnamese production is just not moving. Production in Vietnam is estimated at above Thirty million bags and also a new record. Growing conditions are called good. The government much Robusta at your disposal in the world markets at this moment even though supplies in storage in Europe are usually high.
New York and London both closed lower and made new lows to the move. The big apple price action overall is weak as futures are actually trading at price levels not seen since 2019. Ideas of massive world production are bearish and have absolutely been the scientific explanation for the selling. Most people is looking for a major production well above any demand potential.
Dry conditions continue in Brazil, the EU and Russia, but conditions are mostly good in Ukraine. Really good conditions are reported in Thailand and India, but there is forecasts the fact that Indian monsoon could produce less rain than usual this month. Crops may get stressed quickly from the heat of the united states, but we have seen enough rain at this point. Brazil producers will also be worried about cane production kept in mind however the rapid early harvest, along with the market is now needs to talk about less production there this coming year. The dry weather in most of Europe and in southern Russia outside of the Black Sea has hurt sugarbeets production potential of these areas. Recent rains in elements of Ukraine have continued to boost production prospects there.
Cocoa futures were mixed on Friday probably be able to week. The big apple closed somewhat higher and London closed a touch lower. Ideas of big world production have kept futures for the defensive. The outlook for strong production inside coming year have been enough to stay the prices weak. The primary crop harvest is in its earliest eclipses the others some parts of West Africa, and will eventually not rally get cracking for at least another month. Main crop production tips on Ivory Coast continue near 2.0 million tons in spite of the big rains.
Ghana and Nigeria are expecting very good crops this current year as well. Ideas that current weather conditions are good for the second crops in West Africa continue. We have seen reports of proper rains through the region and massive yields are possible. Showers and more seasonal temperatures are considered in the last so often to improve overall production conditions in West Africa. Conditions also excellent in East Africa and Asia.
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